Disney's live-action Moana is heading toward a $40 million to $45 million U.S. opening estimate, a much softer start for the July 10 release than tracking suggested earlier in the week.
The number is not a final weekend gross. It is a Friday industry estimate, which can still move as Saturday family traffic and Sunday estimates come in.
Moana Box Office Estimate Falls Below Tracking
Boxoffice Pro's Wednesday forecast put the domestic opening at $45 million to $55 million. The outlet described the film as a tentpole struggling to build the kind of momentum Disney had from earlier Moana releases.
Variety reported earlier tracking at $60 million to $65 million from 3,875 North American theaters, with some exhibitor and rival estimates lower. A separate Variety preview report put Thursday previews at $4.5 million.
Boxoffice Pro compared that range with the original Moana opening at $56.6 million in 2016 and Moana 2 at $139.78 million. The live-action version is still expected to lead the weekend, but the drop changes the scale of the launch.
Why the Soft Start Matters
Moana opened in U.S. theaters July 10 with a PG rating. Thomas Kail directed the film, with Catherine Laga'aia as Moana and Dwayne Johnson returning as Maui.
The early estimate lands while family screens are crowded. Boxoffice Pro pointed to Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters as current family competition, with weaker critical buzz adding pressure to the remake.
Final weekend estimates should clarify whether Saturday family attendance narrows the gap or locks in the softer opening.
Sources: Deadline Friday box-office update, Boxoffice Pro weekend forecast, Variety opening-weekend tracking, Variety Thursday preview report, and Disney Movies.
Images: Disney Movies.